A U.S. House Democrat who has managed to cling on to his swing seat for multiple cycles is suddenly facing his toughest test yet as he appears headed toward defeat in 2026.
All of Washington, D.C. will be waiting with bated breath to see which party controls the House in 2027. It’s widely expected that Republicans will maintain control of the U.S. Senate, given an extraordinarily favorable map next year.
Not so for House Republicans, who must contend with a handful of swing districts where vulnerable blue-state moderates are constantly at risk of defeat. But in a bit of good news, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) appears to have a top-tier recruit running to defeat Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME), leader of the so-called Blue Dog Democrats, and who is behind in the latest polling.
In a head-to-head match against Paul LePage, Maine’s former Republican governor, he trails 48%-43%, according to a poll commissioned by the pro-Republican Congressional Leadership Fund. The mid-April poll surveyed 400 likely voters and carries a margin of error of 4.9%, meaning LePage has just exceeded that threshold and almost certainly would win if the election were held today.
Maine has been tantalizingly close for federal Republicans, though always just out of reach, making LePage’s latest showing a welcome surprise for a caucus that must count on numerous close contests to keep its slim majority. The 2nd Congressional District has been represented by Golden since he was first elected in 2018.
Golden, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran, survived the 2024 election despite President Donald Trump carrying his district. He has broken with his party over former President Joe Biden’s management of illegal immigration and earlier this year was the lone House Democrat to vote in favor of Republicans’ stopgap funding bill to keep the government open.
During the pandemic, he was one of two Democrats to side with Republicans in opposition to an anti-police bill authored in the wake of the death of George Floyd, stating that repealing qualified immunity for police officers would make it impossible to perform their duties without fear of facing lawsuits from the public.
LePage, a two-term governor and MAGA conservative, announced in May that he was leaving retirement to challenge Golden, prompting the Democrat to mock the Republican over allegations he was recently living full-time in Florida.
“Yeah alright, what’s the poll question, ‘Who are you more likely to spot on a Florida beach in a Speedo, Paul LePage or Jared Golden?’” Golden told NOTUS in a statement. “What a joke.”
Despite the bravado, Golden is in very real jeopardy. Trump’s popularity has pushed a generic Republican to carry a 47%-38% lead over a generic Democrat, the poll finds, with 15% undecided. It also found Trump held a 50% approval rating in April.
Nor is Golden able to keep his party at arm’s length without risking a progressive primary challenger. After he expressed positive sentiments about some of Trump’s tariffs, the state’s auditor, Matt Dunlap, said he would explore whether to run to the left of Golden in 2026.
