Pro-Israel advocates may finally be at a breaking point over Congresswoman Ilhan Omar’s (D-MN) latest antisemitic activity, and that spells terrible news for her reelection chances.
Although Omar, a member of the far-left “Squad” of progressive minority lawmakers, is safely ensconced in a reliably blue Minnesota district, that doesn’t mean she’s invulnerable to a primary challenger. That’s what some of her critics are counting on.
Last week a telephone survey was sent across the district, testing anti-Omar messages with likely Democratic primary voters who hold her future in their hands next year. The poll bears resemblances to others by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), say observers.
With over $51 million spent on lobbying and political activities in 2024, AIPAC is by far the largest pro-Israel group on Capitol Hill. Political operatives who have been on the opposite side of the group’s activities say the new Minnesota survey indicates they are testing the waters before supporting a potential candidate named in the survey.
The poll asked voters about Omar as well as Ryan Winkler, a Democrat and former Minnesota state representative, and what they perceived to be both politicians’ positive and negative aspects. Some included Omar’s voting record on housing and healthcare, while Winkler’s stances on the minimum wage and private prison reform were queried.
One section, labeled “statements critics might make about Ilhan Omar,” listed her as “one of the most anti-Israel members of Congress,” citing her refusal to condemn the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas as well as her vote against providing arms to Israel.
The respondents were asked to then state how concerned they were after learning about each statement, according to the poll.
Screenshots of the poll obtained by The Intercept do not show who commissioned it, but progressive activists say the survey bears an uncanny similarity to others they have seen deployed by AIPAC.
“This is absolutely what they do,” said Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for Justice Democrats, a far-left organization that backs candidates critical of U.S. military support for Israel.
“They come into these districts early and poll the candidates they’ve already been talking to, that they’re already interested in, which in this case is seemingly Ryan Winkler, so they can take it back to their donors and ask for millions of dollars,” he said. “This is absolutely their playbook.”
A source familiar with the race told the outlet that AIPAC is seriously considering spending an incredible sum to defeat Omar, one of the fiercest anti-Israel lawmakers in Congress. The person, who asked for anonymity to describe current discussions taking place, said multiple contacts have been made with Winkler as both sides feel each other out about the potential for a pro-Israel Democratic primary challenge.
Recent precedent is on AIPAC’s side. The group played a role in ousting former “Squad” Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) after he sharply denounced Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. He was defeated by George Latimer (D-NY), a Jewish Democrat who focused instead on some of Bowman’s more unprofessional conduct, including pulling a fire alarm to evacuate Congress to avoid taking a vote.
