If the election for governor of New York were held today, there’s a very good chance that the state’s most MAGA congresswoman would defeat Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul.
That’s the indication in a new poll out this week pitting Hochul against Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the proud proselytizer of President Donald Trump’s agenda who last month withdrew from consideration to serve as the administration’s U.N. ambassador. Ever a team player, Stefanik went along with the desires of Trump and U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to stay in her seat and help secure the GOP’s razor thin majority.
But if the 2026 map of favorable House seats were to expand, Stefanik — who has indicated she’s interested in moving on from Congress — would immediately top the polls against Hochul.
Only 43% of New Yorkers said they would vote to reelect Hochul compared to 42% who sided with Stefanik, a disastrous result for the Democratic incumbent who took over from disgraced Andrew Cuomo in 2023. About 15% of likely voters are undecided, according to the right-leaning survey on a hypothetical 2026 race.
And if the GOP field for governor becomes crowded, Stefanik would hold the edge: 56% of GOP primary voters opted for the congresswoman over lesser-known alternatives like Mike Lawler (R-NY) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, both said to be mulling bids. Each received 9% and 8%, respectively.
Just 30% hold a favorable opinion of Hochul, while 57% disapproved, the poll of 1,163 voters found. President Trump fared much better, receiving 44% favorable opinions and 49% unfavorable.
The poll comes days after another by Sienna College showing Hochul with a 44% approval rating, still terrible for an incumbent blue-state governor. The same survey found Stefanik with 35% support among GOP primary voters compared to 22% for Lawler and 11% for Blakeman, the NY Post reported.
If offered the opportunity for someone new, 63% of voters would take it, the latest poll says, while just 23% say Hochul deserves reelection.
“Hochul’s re-elect score further highlights her inherent vulnerability,” said Co/efficient pollster Ryan Munce.
Stefanik has room to grow, holding ratings of 34% favorable, 32% unfavorable, and 34% undecided.
The May 1-2 poll carries a plus-or-minus margin of 3.3%.
Pollster Munce predicted that the race will come down to how favorable voters feel about President Trump and national Republicans, who on Thursday secured a major victory by passing Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax cut legislation in the House.
History is not on the New York GOP’s side: the state’s conservative candidates were trounced in the 2018 midterms as Trump’s popularity sank in his first term, leading to the election of Andrew Cuomo. Democrats picked up a congressional seat while State Senate Republicans were locked out of power when Democrats secured a supermajority.
But Munce noted that Trump is more popular the second time around, especially with men, people of color, new voters, and independents.
Hochul’s campaign dismissed the suggestion that the Democratic governor is swimming in shallow waters.
“Elise Stefanik represents the worst of Washington extremism — a staunch Trump loyalist who is gutting New Yorkers’ healthcare and fighting to rip away their rights,” said Hochul campaign spokesperson Jen Goodman.
“We welcome the opportunity to contrast Gov. Hochul’s record of putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, supporting our kids, and keeping communities safe with Stefanik’s out-of-touch, divisive and dangerous record — and fast-track her unemployment once and for all.”
